🖐 Beware Overblown Claims of Coronavirus Strains - The Atlantic

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European Virus Archive goes global This project will generate the largest collection of mammalian viruses in the world and move beyond the.


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Some virus lineages will do really well and others will disappear for reasons that have nothing to do with the viruses themselves and everything to.


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Preprints allow scientists to share data quickly, and speed is vital in a pandemic: Several important studies were uploaded and discussed a full month before being published. He later updated that estimate to 5, So far, the death toll stands at 58,, and is still rising. That was neither the most consequential statement from the White House, nor the most egregious. Read: Why the coronavirus has been so successful. A flawed German study hinted at it in early February, but scientific opinion shifted only after many lines of evidence emerged, including case reports , models showing that most infections are undocumented, and studies indicating that viral levels peak as symptoms appear. Read: We are living in a failed state. But when you consider millions of people, in regular contact with millions of bats, which carry tens of thousands of new viruses, vanishingly improbable events become probable ones. Many other non-epidemiologists seem to have similarly accrued expertise in the field. What follows is an analysis of those forces, and a guide to making sense of a problem that is now too big for any one person to fully comprehend. The rest of us are more likely to fall in the former group than the latter. We hunger for information, but lack the know-how to evaluate it or the sources that provide it. But pandemics demand both depth and breadth of expertise. To hear more feature stories, get the Audm iPhone app. The virus might vary little around the world, but the disease varies a lot. In an earlier era, issues with the Santa Clara study would have been addressed during peer review—the process in which scientific work is assessed by other researchers before being published in a journal. Give me two hours, and I can do a dramatic reading of its entire genome. Another journal published a paper claiming that the new coronavirus probably originated in pangolins, after most virologists had considered and dismissed that idea.

A guide to making sense of a problem that is now too big for any one person to fully comprehend. The reality of what it can do to hospitals is not. Meanwhile, scientists are poring over preprints in open online spaces: The Santa Clara study may not have been formally peer-reviewed, but it has very much viruses archive reviewed by peers.

Now they are occurring over days—and in full public view. Those voices are disproportionately male. Such scrutiny will become ever more necessary as the pandemic wears on. Even then, they would have to be weighed against other evidence, including accounts from doctors and nurses in New York or LombardyItaly, which clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 can crush health-care systems.

It is easier than ever for journalists to assess how new research is being received, but only some are presenting these debates to their audience. Others are not. Many journalists offered similar reassurancesand frequently compared the coronavirus threat with the allegedly greater danger of flu.

No one knows it all, and those who claim to should not be trusted. Both are members of the coronavirus family, which is entirely distinct from the family that includes influenza viruses.

Societies have paused. The most important, he says, was the realization that people can spread viruses archive virus before showing symptoms. Worldwide, at least 3. Are the models too optimistic or too pessimistic? In a pandemic characterized by extreme uncertainty, one of the few things viruses archive know for sure is the identity of the pathogen responsible: a virus called SARS-CoV-2 that is closely related to the original SARS virus.

It takes just one to trigger an epidemic. Larger but still preliminary studies from the U.

Sloppy ones are a net negative, adding to the already considerable uncertainty by offering the illusion of confidence where none exists.

Even within epidemiology, someone who studies infectious diseases knows more about epidemics than, say, someone who studies nutrition. Viruses archive seems unlikely that a random bat virus should somehow jump into a susceptible human.

The issue is that modern expertise tends to be deep, but narrow. Majumder and her colleagues are now building tools for predicting regional CFRs, so local leaders can determine which regions are most vulnerable.

That task is always hard, but especially so when the pathogen is a coronavirus. For now, doctors are viruses archive prescribing it without knowing if it works or, crucially, if more info does more harm than good.

Preprints also allow questionable work to directly enter public discourse, but that problem is not unique to them.

Its numerator—total deaths—depends on the spread of ages within that population, the prevalence of preexisting illnesses, how far people live from hospitals, and how well staffed or well equipped those hospitals are.

ET, Thursday, May 7. Some people who become infected never show any symptoms; others become so ill viruses archive they need ventilators. The disease arises from a combination of the virus and the person it infects, and the society that person belongs to.

One could write a long article https://umor-russkie.fun/best/best-online-live-blackjack-bonuses-for-us-players.html the Santa Clara study alone, but that would defeat the point: that individual pieces of research are extremely unlikely to single-handedly upend continue reading we know about COVID These and others to come could collectively reveal how many Americans have been infected.

The military historian Victor Davis Hanson proffered the widely shared idea that the coronavirus has been spreading in California since last fall—a claim disproved by genetic studies showing that the wpt structure U.

In the early months of the pandemic, while the coronavirus blazed through China, even veteran disease experts seemed to misjudge the odds that the epidemic would become a full-blown pandemic.

Viruses archive of its case-fatality rate CFR —the proportion of diagnosed people who die—have ranged from 0. Viruses archive people learned about a meeting in which global leaders role-played through a fictional coronavirus pandemic, some wrongly argued that the actual pandemic had been planned.

Some officials may have been motivated to avoid disproportionate panic, of the kind that gripped the U.

Why do some people get really sick , but others do not? The idea that there are no experts is overly glib. For example, Stanford University researchers recently made headlines after testing 3, volunteers from Santa Clara County for antibodies against the new coronavirus. The disease seems to wreak havoc not only on lungs and airways, but also on hearts, blood vessels, kidneys, guts, and nervous systems. But even that insight was slow to dawn. These issues may be important, and when facing new diseases, doctors must be responsive and creative. The scientific discussion of the Santa Clara study might seem ferocious to an outsider, but it is fairly typical for academia. Why are so many questions still unanswered? I spent an enormous amount of time over my career teaching medical people about some of this stuff. They have suddenly been thrust into political disputes. This is how science actually works. Through flawed mechanisms like the Nobel Prize , the scientific world elevates individuals for work that is usually done by teams, and perpetuates the myth of the lone genius. Yet such debates might once have played out over months. But it was perhaps the most ironic. This explains why some of the most important stats about the coronavirus have been hard to pin down. Epidemiologists who are used to interacting with only their peers are racking up followers on Twitter. Early Chinese data suggested that severe and fatal illness occurs mostly in the elderly, but in the U. He is one of just a few dozen virologists in the world who specialize in coronaviruses, which have attracted comparatively little attention compared with more prominent threats like flu. To work out if widespread testing is crucial for controlling the pandemic, listen to public-health experts; to work out if widespread testing is possible, listen to supply-chain experts. Once that happens, uncertainties abound as scientists race to characterize the new pathogen. How long must social restrictions go on for? Read: Why does the president keep pushing a malaria drug? Economies have nose-dived. You know, you can call it many different names. COVID is the disease that it causes. People have self-published a lot of terrible pieces on Medium, but some of the best early ones that explained stuff to laypeople were from tech guys. The field swelled slightly after the SARS epidemic of , but then shrunk as interest and funding dwindled. But they must also be rigorous. Expertise is not just about knowledge, but also about the capacity to spot errors. Read: Why some people get sicker than others. This, the authors claimed, means that the virus is less deadly than suspected, and that severe lockdowns may be overreactions—views they had previously espoused in opinion pieces. But much else about the pandemic is still maddeningly unclear. The team concluded that 2. The tight group of coronavirologists is now racing to make up for years of absent research—a tall order in the middle of a pandemic. Laboratory experiments show that some of these new viruses could potentially infect humans. For now, the world is facing just one threat. Those trials will offer clearer answers by the summer, and the drug may yet prove beneficial. How many people have actually been infected? Through attention, the media reward voices that are outspoken but not necessarily correct. These factors vary among countries, states, and cities, and the CFR will, too. But beyond its vast scope and sui generis nature, there are other reasons the pandemic continues to be so befuddling—a slew of forces scientific and societal, epidemiological and epistemological. Exactly how transmissible and deadly is the virus? But that threat can manifest in many ways.